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Ekonomi&Bisnis

Fitch Menaikkan Asumsi Harga Komoditas, Ini Prospeknya

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Lembaga pemeringkat internasional Fitch Ratings menaikkan asumsi harga logam dan komoditas tambang untuk tahun 2026. Proyeksi ini dinilai berpotensi menjadi sentimen positif bagi kinerja saham emiten pertambangan yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI).

Melansir laporan resmi Fitch Ratings, proyeksi harga tembaga naik dari sebelumnya US$9.500/ton menjadi US$11.500/ton. Kenaikan asumsi harga tembaga didorong oleh meningkatnya permintaan dari elektrifikasi global.

Sementara itu, asumsi harga aluminium juga dinaikkan untuk seluruh periode proyeksi karena permintaan yang diperkirakan tetap kuat dalam beberapa tahun ke depan. Untuk tahun 2026, proyeksi harganya naik dari US$2.550 ke US$2.900 per ton.

“Kenaikan asumsi harga aluminium untuk seluruh periode mencerminkan ekspektasi pertumbuhan permintaan yang tetap sehat serta terbatasnya penambahan pasokan dalam jangka menengah, selain dari rencana penambahan kapasitas di Indonesia dan Asia Tenggara,” sebagaimana dikutip dari laman resmi Fitch Rating.

Untuk emas, Fitch menaikkan asumsi harga sepanjang periode proyeksi seiring lonjakan harga pasar yang didorong pembelian bank sentral serta meningkatnya alokasi investasi dari investor institusi dan ritel seiring dengan tensi geopolitik global. Kenaikan harga emas diprediksi terjadi dari level US$3.400 ke US$4.500 per ton.

Untuk batu bara termal, Fitch menaikkan asumsi harga dari US$95 ke US$110 per ton, karena kondisi pasar yang lebih ketat terutama pada kuartal I-2026. Hal ini dipicu oleh penurunan ekspor batu bara Indonesia akibat ketidakpastian kebijakan serta melemahnya produksi domestik China.

Sementara itu, asumsi harga nikel jangka pendek juga dinaikkan ke US$16.000, seiring kebijakan pemerintah Indonesia yang menetapkan kuota produksi lebih rendah. Kebijakan tersebut berpotensi menekan pasokan global sehingga menopang harga nikel di pasar internasional.

Direktur PT Reliance Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk Reza Priyambada mengatakan, kenaikan asumsi harga komoditas tersebut mencerminkan penilaian Fitch terhadap kondisi global saat ini. Menurutnya, naiknya harga komoditas biasanya menjadi sentimen positif bagi emiten yang berkaitan dengan sektor tersebut.

“Dengan adanya potensi kenaikan tersebut biasanya pelaku pasar akan berasumsi bahwa kenaikan tersebut akan berdampak khususnya positif pada emiten-emiten yang berkaitan dengan komoditas tersebut,” ucap Reza.

Senada, Senior Market Analyst Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Nafan Aji Gusta Utama menilai, langkah Fitch menaikkan asumsi harga logam dan komoditas pada 2026 merupakan hal yang wajar. Menurutnya, proyeksi tersebut berpotensi menjadi katalis positif bagi peningkatan harga saham emiten terkait.

Ia mencontohkan, prospek PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) beriringan dengan kuatnya dinamika harga emas global di tengah ketidakpastian geopolitik. Dengan harga emas yang diperkirakan tetap tinggi, margin laba dari divisi pemurnian logam mulia ANTM diprediksi akan tetap kuat pada awal 2026

Hilirisasi yang dilakukan ANTM bersama seluruh Grup MIND ID juga sebagai nilai tambah. Kerjasama dengan raksasa dunia seperti CATL dan LG Energy Solution melalui Indonesia Battery Corporation (IBC) mulai memasuki fase konstruksi lanjut dan operasional beberapa lini smelter HPAL (High-Pressure Acid Leaching).

Di sisi lain, kebijakan pemerintah yang semakin ketat terhadap ekspor bahan mentah akan semakin menguntungkan ANTM bersama Grup MIND ID karena sudah memiliki infrastruktur pengolahan (smelter feronikel) yang mapan.

Sebagai informasi, ANTM yang merupakan anggota bersama dengan PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA) saat ini memimpin kenaikan harga saham di antara emiten emas sejak awal tahun 2026. Bila dibandingkan, harga saham ANTM telah naik 9,03% year to date (ytd), dan MDKA naik 38,63% ytd per penutupan perdagangan Jumat, (27/3/2026).

Dari sisi teknikal, Head of Research Retail MNC Sekuritas Herditya Wicaksana mencermati sejumlah saham komoditas yang menarik untuk diperhatikan. Di antaranya PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS) dengan target harga pada kisaran 9.000-9.400, dan PT Archi Indonesia Tbk (ARCI) di rentang 1.755-1.905.

“Lebih lanjut, rekomendasi harga PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) di kisaran 2.520-2.600, serta emiten batu bara pelat merah PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk (PTBA) pada level 2.900-3.080,” kata Herditya.

Di tengah proyeksi kenaikan harga komoditas global tersebut, saham emiten tambang, termasuk yang tergabung dalam ekosistem Grup MIND ID, berpotensi memperoleh sentimen positif. Pelaku pasar dapat mencermati kondisi fundamental maupun teknikal saham tersebut sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi.

Press Release ini juga sudah tayang di VRITIMES

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